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Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

Stars embedded in active galactic nucleus (AGN) discs or captured by them may scatter onto the supermassive black hole (SMBH), leading to a tidal disruption event (TDE). Using the moving-mesh hydrodynamics simulations with arepo, we investigate the dependence of debris properties in in-plane TDEs in AGN discs on the disc density and the orientation of stellar orbits relative to the disc gas (pro- and retro-grade). Key findings are: (1) Debris experiences continuous perturbations from the disc gas, which can result in significant and continuous changes in debris energy and angular momentum compared to ‘naked’ TDEs. (2) Above a critical density of a disc around an SMBH with mass M• [ρcrit ∼ 10−8 g cm−3 (M•/106 M⊙)−2.5] for retrograde stars, both bound and unbound debris is fully mixed into the disc. The density threshold for no bound debris return, inhibiting the accretion component of TDEs, is $\rho _{\rm crit,bound} \sim 10^{-9}{\rm g~cm^{-3}}(M_{\bullet }/10^{6}\, {\rm M}_{\odot })^{-2.5}$. (3) Observationally, AGN-TDEs transition from resembling naked TDEs in the limit of ρdisc ≲ 10−2ρcrit,bound to fully muffled TDEs with associated inner disc state changes at ρdisc ≳ ρcrit,bound, with a superposition of AGN + TDE in between. Stellar or remnant passages themselves can significantly perturb the inner disc. This can lead to an immediate X-ray signature and optically detectable inner disc state changes, potentially contributing to the changing-look AGN phenomenon. (4) Debris mixing can enrich the average disc metallicity over time if the star’s metallicity exceeds that of the disc gas. We point out that signatures of AGN-TDEs may be found in large AGN surveys.

Stars and stellar remnants orbiting a supermassive black hole (SMBH) can interact with an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disc. Over time, prograde orbiters (inclination i < 90°) decrease inclination, as well as semimajor axis (a) and eccentricity (e) until orbital alignment with the gas disc (‘disc capture’). Captured stellar-origin black holes (sBH) add to the embedded AGN population that drives sBH–sBH mergers detectable in gravitational waves using LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA or sBH–SMBH mergers detectable with Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. Captured stars can be tidally disrupted by sBH or the SMBH or rapidly grow into massive ‘immortal’ stars. Here, we investigate the behaviour of polar and retrograde orbiters (i ≥ 90°) interacting with the disc. We show that retrograde stars are captured faster than prograde stars, flip to prograde orientation (i < 90°) during capture, and decrease a dramatically towards the SMBH. For sBH, we find a critical angle iret ∼ 113°, below which retrograde sBH decay towards embedded prograde orbits (i → 0°), while for io > iret sBH decay towards embedded retrograde orbits (i → 180°). sBH near polar orbits (i ∼ 90°) and stars on nearly embedded retrograde orbits (i ∼ 180°) show the greatest decreases in a. Whether a star is captured by the disc within an AGN lifetime depends primarily on disc density, and secondarily on stellar type and initial a. For sBH, disc capture time is longest for polar orbits, low-mass sBH, and lower density discs. Larger mass sBH should typically spend more time in AGN discs, with implications for the spin distribution of embedded sBH.

Galactic nuclei are promising sites for stellar origin black hole (BH) mergers, as part of merger hierarchies in deep potential wells. We show that binary black hole (BBH) merger rates in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) should always exceed merger rates in quiescent galactic nuclei (nuclear star clusters, NSCs) around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) without accretion discs. This is primarily due to average binary lifetimes in AGNs that are significantly shorter than those in NSCs. The lifetime difference comes from rapid hardening of BBHs in AGNs, such that their semimajor axes are smaller than the hard–soft boundary of their parent NSC; this contrasts with the large average lifetime to merger for BBHs in NSCs around SMBHs, due to binary ionization mechanisms. Secondarily, merger rates in AGNs are enhanced by gas-driven binary formation mechanisms. Formation of new BHs in AGN discs is a minor contributor to the rate differences. With the gravitational wave detection of several BBHs with at least one progenitor in the upper mass gap, and signatures of dynamical formation channels in the χeff distribution, we argue that AGNs could contribute $\sim 25{\!-\!}80{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the LIGO–Virgo measured rate of $\sim 24\, \rm {Gpc}^{-3} \rm {yr}^{-1}$.

The accretion disks of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are promising locations for the merger of compact objects detected by gravitational wave (GW) observatories. Embedded within a baryon-rich, high-density environment, mergers within AGNs are the only GW channel where an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart must occur (whether detectable or not). Considering AGNs with unusual flaring activity observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we describe a search for candidate EM counterparts to binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected by LIGO/Virgo in O3. After removing probable false positives, we find nine candidate counterparts to BBH mergers during O3 (seven in O3a, two in O3b) with ap-value of 0.0019. Based on ZTF sky coverage, AGN geometry, and merger geometry, we expect ≈3(N_BBH/83)(f_AGN/0.5) potentially detectable EM counterparts from O3, whereN_BBHis the total number of observed BBH mergers andf_AGNis the fraction originating in AGNs. Further modeling of breakout and flaring phenomena in AGN disks is required to reduce our false-positive rate. Two of the events are also associated with mergers with total masses >100M_⊙, which is the expected rate for O3 if hierarchical (large-mass) mergers occur in the AGN channel. Candidate EM counterparts in future GW observing runs can be better constrained by coverage of the Southern sky as well as spectral monitoring of unusual AGN flaring events in LIGO/Virgo alert volumes. A future set of reliable AGN EM counterparts to BBH mergers will yield an independent means of measuring cosmic expansion (H₀) as a function of redshift.

Low ionization nuclear emission-line regions (LINERs) are a heterogeneous collection of up to one-third of galactic nuclei in the local Universe. It is unclear whether LINERs are simply the result of low accretion rates onto supermassive black holes (BHs) or whether they include a large number of optically thick radiatively inefficient but super-Eddington accretion flows (RIAFs). Optically thick RIAFs are typically discs of large-scale height or quasi-spherical gas flows. These should be dense enough to trap and merge a large number of the stellar mass BHs, which we expect to exist in galactic nuclei. Electromagnetic observations of photospheres of accretion flows do not allow us to break model degeneracies. However, gravitational wave observations probe the interior of accretion flows where the merger of stellar mass BHs can be greatly accelerated over the field rate. Here, we show that the upper limits on the rate of BH mergers observed with LIGO demonstrate that most LINERs cannot be optically thick RIAFs.